You hear it from clients all the time. I need a PPC forecast. You review the data, assess the opportunities and present a forecast. The feedback you get is either, this is too conservative (I need something more positive), this is too unrealistic (not achievable) or this is good, but it does not match what we have put in the business plan.
Data is everything
To make a forecast right you need to get several key bits of data first from the business.
- The time duration (monthly / quarterly / bi-annually / annual) forecast - what time breakdowns are we looking to measure against.
- What are the main metrics to measure against (engagement / leads / ROI)
- What is the end goal for the campaign?
- Does the business have any specific KPIs?
- What is the available media spend for the campaign and does this change +/- over the year
- Are there any seasonal factors or other factors to be aware of when planning activity (such as new website, new products or sales promotions etc)
Stage 1
The first stage is to go on a fact finding mission, to gather up as much information from the business as possible. This way you can plot out a rough plan and to assess whether the business objectives are realistic. For instance if the client wants to triple their growth and at the same time slash paid spend right down – you need to flag this ahead of time so that you can realistically set expectations.
Once you have the business goals and plan, you can then look into the platform to get a sense of past and current performance. This will give you a baseline for activity. From here plot out a MoM trend line in activity with the key metrics you want to benchmark against.
Then factor in what can be improved on the platform and on the website to improve conversion performance, along with any seasonal factors. This will give you the push/pull levers for how you can improve a campaign.
Stage 2
Then create x3 scenarios for your forecast.
- Performance as is: All things being equal what would the current trend look like.
- Optimised campaign: If you could implement everything to improve the account, what uplift would this give (hypothetically)
- Enhanced campaign: What would happen if you dramatically increased spend (is there a ceiling) what are the potential gains and at what stage does performance start to drop off.
The aim is to identify if there is scope to increase campaign spend and if there is a way to dramatically increase performance on the account. If the answer is yes, factor this into the forecasts. If you do not have enough data or there is a limit to what you can present then be more conservative and then caveat this saying (this is guided by data) and is a realistic expectation – rather than a pie in the sky number that would come back to haunt you later on.
Perfect forecast
The forecast is more than just plotted numbers, it is an opportunity to assess the business and its needs, and provide a roadmap for them. Allowing you to ask questions about what else can be done, additional service channels, more media spend, more work onsite or offline activity.
A good forecast presents the data, gives an outline roadmap and helps shape your paid media campaign. So that you know whether you are on track or falling behind. An unrealistic forecast or one that has not taken into consideration the business objectives is bound to meet friction down the line and can set yourself up to fail.
If you need help making forecasts or would like to know more, feel free to get in touch today. We’d love to hear from you.
